Modeling Of Non-Oil And Gas Export Forecasting Aceh Province Using Arima And Double Exponential Methods

Since 2017, there have been no exports of oil and gas commodities (oil and gas) from Aceh Province, so that the commodities exported only come from non-oil and gas commodities. From 2016 to 2015, non-oil and gas exports from Aceh were dominated by urea fertilizer. However, since 2015 there has been no export of urea fertilizer and has been replaced by anhydrous ammonia . K arena is important to model forecasting the value of non-oil exports. The model that is compared is the ARIMA and double exponential methods . The result is the ARIMA method is better in modeling the value of non-oil exports. The results of forecasting non-oil exports in Aceh Province in 2016 showed an increase compared to 2017.