Forecasting and Establishing National Rice Production Targets in Indonesia

Zahra, Nisa and Cahyadi, Eko Ruddy (2021) Forecasting and Establishing National Rice Production Targets in Indonesia. In: ICOSMI 2020, 14-16 September 2020, Bogor, West Java, Indonesia.

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Abstract

Since 2018 the Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics has applied a new method of establishing rice production data; namely, the Area Frame Sampling method, which is considered more objective by analyzing satellite images. This causes rice production historical data becomes very limited due to the method differences that may lead to the need of new forecasting method to predict future rice production and target setting. This study aims to provide recommendations on appropriate : (1) forecasting method to predict national rice production number; and (2) method on setting national rice production targets that can produce a robust, realistic, achievable and accountable number. The Backcasting method was used to overcome the limitations of historical data. Trials on various quantitative methods resulted that the double exponential smoothing method was the most recommended method for predicting future national rice production numbers. This study also suggested to integrate quantitative and qualitative methods in establishing national rice production targets. Production target that exceeds optimistic target numbers requires special programs and efforts to achieve them.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Uncontrolled Keywords: backcasting double exponential smoothing method forecasting rice production target
Subjects: H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General)
Depositing User: EAI Editor IV
Date Deposited: 26 Jul 2021 14:50
Last Modified: 26 Jul 2021 14:50
URI: https://eprints.eudl.eu/id/eprint/5082

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